ESTIMATE AND PREDICTIVE MODEL OF REGIONAL GEODEMOGRAPHIC SYSTEM
Kateryna SEHIDA
V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Ukraine
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Abstract:
The regional geodemographic system is a typical subject of a human geographer. Estimate and predictive model of geodemographic system, proposed in this paper, is created for pilot study of development tendencies of geodemographic system and forecasting of its changes in view of various management scenarios. Creation of a model needs for several preparatory stages. The first stage is an idealization of the studied system. The next one is formalization that provides transition from the figurative and verbal description of a model to unambiguous representations by means of formal logic in the form of balance equations. To describe the changes of geodemographic system, a balance equation is used, describing each settlement or each local geodemographic system as a part of regional geodemographic system. The final stage implies parametrization and input of entry conditions. Flexibility of the model algorithm allows realizing four main options, listed here from the least to the most complicate: a) retrospective analysis for identification of the main temporary tendencies of regional geodemographic system functioning; b) short-time or long-time forecasting of a regional geodemographic system according to various options of its development; c) use of the model to manage the development of regional geodemographic situation; d) creation of online permanent model of regional geodemographic system and its development. The letter option represents a perspective and utmost practical application of the proposed estimate and predictive model in public management.
Key words:
population, geodemographic system, geodemographic processes, modeling, estimate and predictive model
Language:
Ukrainian
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/2413-7154/2017.77.85-91
Suggested citation: Sehida, K. (2017). Estimate and predictive model of regional geodemographic system. Ekonomichna ta Sotsialna Geografiya, 77, 85-91 (in Ukrainian, abstr. in English), https://doi.org/10.17721/2413-7154/2017.77.85-91.
Print ISSN: 2413-7154. Online ISSN: 2413-7553
